Turkey country watch
Exposure to Turkey means watching the central bank and the lira, inflation and interest-rate decisions, customs and export rules, the ports of Mersin, Ambarlı and İzmir, and the construction, textiles, autos and defence groups linking Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia. We read Dünya, Hürriyet, Sabah, Ekonomim and Bloomberg HT every morning.
Vigilance
No active vigilance flag · rules: Heightened vigilance for staff and travel · Pressure surge · Media polarisation spike
Flare-up watch
Flare-up watch: Calm (0.4) — driven by Safety & health and Agenda divergence
- Internal tension +0.0
- Safety & health +1.4
- Agenda divergence +0.6
- Framing gap +0.5
- Attention −0.5
Signals consistent with rising crisis risk. A composite of press signals, not a forecast.
Composite of the day's z-scores against the country's own history — Internal tension 0.25, Safety & health 0.20, agenda divergence 0.20, framing gap 0.15, attention 0.20; a missing component drops out and the others are renormalised. Calm below 0.5 · Watch to 1.5 · High above. Needs 14 days of history on two components. Method →
Direction, last 30 days
Improving 0 · Stable 3 · Deteriorating 2 · Mixed 11 · no briefing 14
Risk pressure, last 30 days
| Risk category | Level | Change vs previous 30 days (points) | Stories, 30 days | Last signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory risk | High | ▲ +30 | 16 | Turkey expands e-notification system for businesses |
| Operational risk | High | ▲ +12 | 8 | Bosphorus closed after Malta-flagged ship incident |
| Stability risk | Quiet | = | 0 | — |
| Safety & health risk | Elevated | ▲ +7 | 4 | Tokat water issue leads to school closure, health alert |
| Corporate risk | Elevated | ▲ +7 | 4 | ASELSAN secures $125M export contract |
| Financial risk | High | ▲ +22 | 16 | Borsa Istanbul opens with gains |
| Trade risk | Elevated | ▲ +5 | 3 | Turkey's maritime fleet reaches record capacity |
| Political risk | Quiet | = | 0 | — |
Pressure index from 30 days of history · 21 so far
Pressure = sum of story severities reported by the local press over 30 days (1 minor · 2 material · 3 severe). A press signal, not a credit rating. Levels: Quiet 0 · Low 1–3 · Elevated 4–8 · High 9+ points. Method →
Pressure over 90 days
Regulatory risk
HighOperational risk
HighStability risk
QuietSafety & health risk
ElevatedCorporate risk
ElevatedFinancial risk
HighTrade risk
ElevatedPolitical risk
QuietEach curve is the 30-day pressure score of that category, recomputed every day. A press signal, not a forecast. Method →
Turkey in the world's press
Today 392 articles · ×0.5 vs 30-day average · led by Turkey, Andorra, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Cyprus press
Articles mentioning the country across the outlets we read, vs the 30-day average. Method →
Media polarisation
Normal · 93% of the day's topics covered by one side only
· opposition 77 · power 100 articles · 300 topics, 12 shared
Framing gap on shared topics: 0.08 — Normal
- power Sigara satışı kimlikle olacak vs opposition Sigara satışında 'kimlik şartı' mı geliyor? Sağlık Bakan Kemal Memişoğlu'ndan yeni açıklama 0.25
- power Elma bolluğu fiyatları düşürdü! Dalında 25 liradan 10 liraya geriledi vs opposition Rekolte tavan yaptı, fiyatlar çakıldı! Kilosu 10 liraya kadar düştü 0.25
- power Arda Güler’in ortası geceye damga vurdu: ‘Yeni bir pas stili icat etti’ vs opposition Olaylı maçın ardından... İspanya'da gündem Arda Güler: 'Real Madrid'in açık ara en iyi oyuncusuydu' 0.25
Share of the day's topics covered by only one side (power vs opposition outlets), from the outlets we read. Media polarisation, not public opinion. On the topics both camps covered the same day, the gap in reading — stance toward the government and tone, scored from the headlines, 0 same reading to 1 opposite. Media framing, not public opinion. Method →
Media we read
39 outlets read every day
- Aktif Haber independent
- Al Jazeera Turk - Ortadogu, Kafkasya, Balkanlar, Turkiye ve Çevresindeki bolgeden son dakika haberleri ve analizler independent
- Anadolu Agency state
- Anadolu Ajansi Güncel Haberler state
- birbak independent
- Bugun independent
- Bugun.com.tr independent
- Cumhuriyet opposition
- Cumhuriyet.com.tr: Son Dakika opposition
- Diken opposition
- En Son Haber independent
- Fanatik independent
- FotoMac independent
- Gazete Vahdet - Milletin Sesi - Son Dakika Haberler independent
- Haber Turk independent
- haber7.com power
- Haberler.com independent
- HT Spor independent
- Hurriyet independent
- Hürriyet independent
- İMC TV opposition
- InternetHaber.com independent
- milatgazetesi.COM independent
- Milliyet independent
- mynet haber independent
- NTV independent
- ntvmsnbc independent
- Posta Gazetesi independent
- Radikal-Rss (Son Dakika) independent
- Sabah independent
- SonDakika.com independent
- Sözcü Gazetesi independent
- sporx independent
- STAR independent
- STARGAZETE.COM independent
- Türkiye Gazetesi independent
- Vatan independent
- Yeni Akit Gazetesi power
- Yeni Safak power
Cited this month
- haber7.com 15
- Yeni Safak 13
- Anadolu Agency 12
- milatgazetesi.COM 10
- Cumhuriyet.com.tr: Son Dakika 7
- Haber Turk 7
- Haberler.com 7
- Diken 6
- Cumhuriyet 5
- InternetHaber.com 5
- Radikal-Rss (Son Dakika) 5
- Sabah 4
- STAR 4
- mynet haber 1
- Vatan 1
Today
Business conditions in Turkey are deteriorating due to health concerns in Tokat, disrupting education and public health, and a Bosphorus closure affecting logistics. New e-notification rules add compliance burdens.
Tokat Health Scare, Bosphorus Closure, e-Notification Rule
Watchlist
Previous briefings
- MixedTurkey Extends Company Relief, Tokat Water Alert3 stories
- StableRice Import Oversight, Ankara Traffic Disruption3 stories
- StableASELSAN's Export Deal, Borsa Istanbul Rises4 stories
- MixedTurkey's Inflation Outlook, Maritime Fleet Growth3 stories
- MixedASELSAN's Major Deal, New Rules for Booking3 stories
- MixedInflation Falls, Dollar Hits Record, G7 Oil Release4 stories
- MixedTurkey's Export Record, Market Probe Deepens3 stories
- StableAsset Freeze Lifted, Istanbul Floods Disrupt3 stories
- Turkey Freezes Assets, Istanbul Power Cuts3 stories
- MixedEmlak Katılım's Moves, SPK Investigations3 stories
- MixedTurkey's Investment Funds Meeting, BIST 100 Dips3 stories
- MixedMASAK Payment Limits, Inflation Expectations Shift4 stories
- MixedBIST 50 Rule Change, Istanbul Power Outages3 stories
- MixedTurkish Trade Penalties, EU Customs Reform3 stories
- MixedTera Portföy Faces Massive Withdrawals, Cilvegözü Reopens3 stories
Other country briefings
- Brazil — Metro Vandalism and Iguaçu Closure Disrupt Brazil
- Argentina — Floods Hit Entre Ríos; Railway Crisis Revealed
- South Korea — Saudi Travel Alert, Cyber Risks for Finance
- India — SC Orders Delhi Protest Easing, IndiGo Flight Incident
- Germany — Harburg Road Closures, Deutsche Bank Reform Critique
- United Kingdom — ScotRail Disruption Hits Glasgow, Burnham Faces Election Pressure
- France — Lycée Protests Escalate, Macron's Auto Policy
- Italy — Italy's Budget Challenges, Ecobonus Changes
- Portugal — Energy Costs Prompt Urgent Hearings, EU Budget Talks
- Senegal — Debt Talks Impact Economy, School Reopening Confirmed
- United States — Trump's Energy Ceasefire, LA Mosquito Surge
- China — Guangzhou Land Policies, Food Safety Law Update
- Japan — AI Policy Shift, Cyberdefense Demand, Japan-China Tensions
- Mexico — Hurricane Simon Halts Operations, Agro Surplus Dips
- Canada — Manitoba E-Scooter Rules, Immigration Error
- Spain — Madrid Protests Disrupt Events, Galicia Projects Delayed
- Poland — Tusk Threat Alert, School Violence Arrests
- Netherlands — Rotterdam Train Services Resume, Diesel Supply Alert
- Russia — Moscow Airports Halt, Yandex Data Center Hit
- Ukraine — Energy Truce Announced, Kyiv Faces Power Outages
- South Africa — Durban Protests Persist, Home Affairs Faces Criticism
- Nigeria — SERAP Sues CBN, INEC Omits Parties, NAFDAC Alert
- Egypt — Banque du Caire IPO, EgyptAir Flight Suspension
- Morocco — Floods Disrupt, Cannabis Seized at Tanger Med
- Kenya — Kenya Extends Fuel Relief, El Niño Risks Rise
- Indonesia — Transport Law Revised, Palembang Flights Disrupted
- Malaysia — Bailey Bridge Restores Access; Nurses Retention Efforts
- Israel — Flydubai Flights Blocked, Court Rattles Banks
- Colombia — Medellín Storm Disrupts, Bogotá Water Cuts Planned
- Iran — Hormuz Tanker Fire, Iran-Turkmenistan Road Deal
- Lebanon — Lebanon Strike Continues, Brent Oil Surges
- Jordan — Insurance Rule Change, Debt Relief for Firms
- Iraq — Iraqi Graft Crackdown, Seismic Survey Deal
- Syria — Syria's Austerity Risks, Currency Market Chaos
- Yemen
- Vietnam — Vietnam-China Trade Surges, Power Market Restructures