Iran country watch

Exposure to Iran means watching the rial and the multiple exchange rates, sanctions and snapback decisions, oil export volumes and the Strait of Hormuz, the ports of Bandar Abbas and Bushehr, power and water cuts that idle industry, and the oil, petrochemicals, steel, autos and banking groups under state control. We read the Financial Tribune, the Tehran Times, Donya-e-Eqtesad, IRNA, ISNA and Mehr every morning.

Vigilance

No active vigilance flag · rules: Heightened vigilance for staff and travel · Pressure surge · Media polarisation spike

Flare-up watch

Flare-up watch: Calm (0.3) — driven by Internal tension

Internal tension +1.3
Safety & health +0.0
Agenda divergence +0.0
Attention −0.4

11 October 2026 · the articles counted

Signals consistent with rising crisis risk. A composite of press signals, not a forecast.

Composite of the day's z-scores against the country's own history — Internal tension 0.25, Safety & health 0.20, agenda divergence 0.20, framing gap 0.15, attention 0.20; a missing component drops out and the others are renormalised. Calm below 0.5 · Watch to 1.5 · High above. Needs 14 days of history on two components. Method →

Direction, last 30 days

Improving 1 · Stable 0 · Deteriorating 11 · Mixed 5 · no briefing 13

Risk pressure, last 30 days

Risk category	Level	Change vs previous 30 days (points)	Stories, 30 days	Last signal
Regulatory risk	High	▲ +14	7	Iran plans to reopen Strait of Hormuz
Operational risk	High	▲ +20	8	IRGC claims LPG tanker hit in Hormuz Strait
Stability risk	Low	▲ +2	1	Iran Dismantles Sabotage Networks in Kerman Province
Safety & health risk	Low	▲ +2	1	Tanker Fire in Hormuz After Projectile Strike
Corporate risk	Quiet	=	0	—
Financial risk	High	▲ +23	15	Iranian Rial Strengthens, Dollar Falls to 262,000
Trade risk	High	▲ +20	12	Iran and Turkmenistan to Expand Road Cooperation
Political risk	High	▲ +12	7	Iran's Rezaei warns US of another 'ancient defeat'

Pressure index from 30 days of history · 20 so far

Pressure = sum of story severities reported by the local press over 30 days (1 minor · 2 material · 3 severe). A press signal, not a credit rating. Levels: Quiet 0 · Low 1–3 · Elevated 4–8 · High 9+ points. Method →

Pressure over 90 days

Regulatory risk

High

Operational risk

High

Stability risk

Low

Safety & health risk

Low

Corporate risk

Quiet

Financial risk

High

Trade risk

High

Political risk

High

Each curve is the 30-day pressure score of that category, recomputed every day. A press signal, not a forecast. Method →

Iran in the world's press

Today 1304 articles · ×0.6 vs 30-day average · led by Iran, Yemen, United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia press

Articles mentioning the country across the outlets we read, vs the 30-day average. Method →

Media polarisation

Normal · 100% of the day's topics covered by one side only

12 October 2026 · opposition 90 · power 23 articles · 300 topics, 0 shared

Share of the day's topics covered by only one side (power vs opposition outlets), from the outlets we read. Media polarisation, not public opinion. Method →